[amsat-bb] Re: ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km

[Jeff Yanko]

Hi Henk and all!

Strangely enough, but honestly, I did not look at the graph.  The problem 
with re-entry predictions is most treat it as a linear decay when in reality 
it's logarithmic.  It compounds itself and progresses as times progresses. 
Sorry for not converting miles to KM, but at 100 miles, depending on it's 
mass and surface area, time is running out and fast.  At 90 miles heating is 
increasing dramatically.  Between 80 to 90 miles, it has re-entered, 
depending on how "thick" the atmosphere is at that time.  Remember, at solar 
maximum the atmoshere is much thicker due to the increase of the solar 
activity.  It's quite possible that if we were currently at solar maximum, 
ANDE would have been history by now.

Not to brag, boast or claim any superior powers :), I did manage to come in 
2nd place in the Chicken Little contest in predicting the re-entry of the 
satellite Solar Max.  I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of 
Oscar-9.

73,

Jeff  WB3JFS


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Henk, PA3GUO" <hamoen at iae.nl>
To: <amsat-bb at amsat.org>
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 12:53 PM
Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km


Hi Jeff,

That's an extreme accurate prediction !
Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the 
graph' !
How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?

73 - Henk, PA3GUO


> In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry 
> prediction  for ANDE is:
>
> December 22, 2007  1935z.
>
>
> Jeff  WB3JFS
>
>>
>>>From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
>> (based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it
>> had reached 175 km).
>>
>> Henk, PA3GUO