[amsat-bb] Re: ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km

[Henk, PA3GUO]

Right !

In that case we will really this as the most likely time of de-orbit.
... only 4 days left for some final QSOs.

Henk

> Hi Henk and all!
>
> Strangely enough, but honestly, I did not look at the graph.  The problem  with re-entry predictions is most treat
> it as a linear decay when in reality  it's logarithmic.  It compounds itself and progresses as times progresses.
> Sorry for not converting miles to KM, but at 100 miles, depending on it's  mass and surface area, time is running
> out and fast.  At 90 miles heating is  increasing dramatically.  Between 80 to 90 miles, it has re-entered,
> depending on how "thick" the atmosphere is at that time.  Remember, at solar  maximum the atmoshere is much thicker
> due to the increase of the solar  activity.  It's quite possible that if we were currently at solar maximum,  ANDE
> would have been history by now.
>
> Not to brag, boast or claim any superior powers :), I did manage to come in  2nd place in the Chicken Little contest
> in predicting the re-entry of the  satellite Solar Max.  I also came in 2nd place in predicting the re-entry of
> Oscar-9.
>
> 73,
>
> Jeff  WB3JFS
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Henk, PA3GUO" <hamoen at iae.nl>
> To: <amsat-bb at amsat.org>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 12:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [amsat-bb] ANDE ramping down: now almost at 200km
>
>
> Hi Jeff,
>
> That's an extreme accurate prediction !
> Sure you must have applied a more scientific method as my 'looking at the  graph' !
> How did you do that, or is that a secret until the contest is over :-) ?
>
> 73 - Henk, PA3GUO
>
>
>> In the spirit of the previous Chicken Little contests my re-entry  prediction  for ANDE is:
>>
>> December 22, 2007  1935z.
>>
>>
>> Jeff  WB3JFS
>>
>>>
>>>>From the graph I expect Dec 24 or so as the last day
>>> (based on the fact that RAFT last day was when it
>>> had reached 175 km).
>>>
>>> Henk, PA3GUO