[amsat-bb] Re: HEO launch possible???

[Bruce Robertson]

On Tue, Dec 16, 2008 at 6:41 AM, Luc Leblanc <lucleblanc6 at videotron.ca> wrote:
> Hi satellite fans
>
> Just came out of a bad dream tonight after reading this Ariane 5 announcement?
>
> "The 186th Ariane mission will launch two communications satellites, primarily
> intended for direct TV broadcast services and data networks: HOT BIRDTM 9 and W2M,
> both for Eutelsat.
>
> This will be the 42nd Ariane 5 launch.
>
> The launcher will be carrying a total payload of 9,220 kg, including 8,340 kg for the
> two satellites, which will be released separately into their targeted orbits."
>
> Just note The 9220Kg payload and theses Ariane 5 figures
>
> LEO Payload* (28.5 deg., 550 km)        GTO Payload* (7 deg. inclination)
> 39,600 lb 18,000 kg                             (single / dual manifest) 15,000 lb / 13,160 lb 6,800 kg / 5,970 kg
>
>
> Configuration
> Core + 2 SRB + Aestus Second Stage
>
> Launch Mass
> 1,570,000 lb
> 710,000 kg
>
> Estimated Launch Price US $120 M
>
> * Performance provided by Arianespace.
>
> There is room for a 150kg amateur HEO satellite and at an US$169 per kilo a 150Kg mass should cost US $25350!!!
>
> I'm not too quick in calculus but how the +_ millions USD P3E and EAGLE launch cost came from? integration work? shipping and handling?
>
> I know that at the top of a Ponzi pyramid numbers added very fast but even with the worst case scenario there is something who's not added
> up correctly here?
>
> The killing question is: Is the actual P3E and EAGLE launch issues are really a financial matter? and those very high HEO launch cost
> estimates are hiding something else?
>
>
> If you want to see where i got theses figures go to:
>
> http://www.spaceandtech.com/spacedata/elvs/ariane5_specs.shtml

Luc:

This is interesting information, as always. In my opinion, your
presentation of it is marred by the too-rapid accusation of illegal
activity. My impression is the contrary: that AMSAT has benefited from
the hard work of well-informed and well-placed volunteers, who have
nonetheless been unable to find a workable price for a HEO launch in
today's market.  So perhaps there is another explanation for the
discrepancy you observe.

I remember that the 1-kg cubesat launches cost roughly $40,000, and
that this is considered an incredibly low price. This makes me suspect
that determining the launch cost by long division only, to derive your
$25,000, might not be sufficient.

I think it is very important that, as an organization, we do not
become upset with those who attempt to find HEO/GEO opportunities and
bring back bad news to us. I'll put this more broadly: I think the
biggest threat to AMSAT today is not the lack of launch opportunities,
but rather the bitterness and consequential unwarranted recriminations
that come from our thwarted ambitions.

73, Bruce
VE9QRP