[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

[Nico Janssen]

Hi,

My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
> Hi,
>
> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
>
> 73,
> Nico PA0DLO
>
>
> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> Hi,
>>
>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
>> there have not been any magnetic storms.
>>
>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any
>> sensible predictions.
>>
>> 73,
>> Nico PA0DLO
>>
>>
>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>> Hi,
>>>
>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
>>> develops in the coming weeks.
>>>
>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
>>>
>>> 73,
>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>
>>>
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