[amsat-bb] BY70-1 decay estimate

[Nico Janssen]

Info from Space-Track.org.

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73, Nico

On 18-02-17 15:20, Joe wrote:
> Morning Nico,
>
> Sad,
>
> Just curious tho, How do you know with such certainty it happened here?
>
> The status board had it being heard last in Europe, and then going to 
> less populated areas.
>
> Joe WB9SBD
> Sig
> The Original Rolling Ball Clock
> Idle Tyme
> Idle-Tyme.com
> http://www.idle-tyme.com
> On 2/18/2017 5:39 AM, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> All,
>>
>> BY70-1 re-entered today 2017-02-18 at 00:19 UTC +/- 3 minutes near
>> 11 degrees South, 159 degrees West.
>>
>> 73,
>> Nico PA0DLO
>>
>>
>> On 17-02-17 16:39, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>> All,
>>>
>>> BY70-1 may be expected to re-enter on February 18 around 01:05 UTC
>>> ± 1 hour.
>>>
>>> If you wish to track the satellite all the way to the re-entry, I 
>>> suggest you
>>> use the following TLE sets:
>>>
>>> After 2017-02-17, 19:00 UTC use this TLE set:
>>> BY70-1                                           180 x 153 km
>>> 1 41909U 16083C   17048.79504626  .12181346  12893+0  71409-3 0 99991
>>> 2 41909  97.5409 131.9041 0020298 184.6552 175.3259 16.39700464 8178
>>>
>>> After 2017-02-17, 20:30 UTC use this TLE set:
>>> BY70-1                                           174 x 150 km
>>> 1 41909U 16083C   17048.85604685  .15184949  20755+0  66732-3 0 99998
>>> 2 41909  97.5404 131.9770 0018254 184.4013 175.5826 16.41354756 8186
>>>
>>> After 2017-02-17, 22:00 UTC use this TLE set:
>>> BY70-1                                           167 x 146 km
>>> 1 41909U 16083C   17048.91697788  .20752091  42136+0  63726-3 0 99993
>>> 2 41909  97.5397 132.0500 0015727 184.1470 175.8399 16.43503239 8199
>>>
>>> After 2017-02-17, 23:30 UTC use this TLE set:
>>> BY70-1                                           156 x 140 km
>>> 1 41909U 16083C   17048.97781267  .34949706  12852+1  64507-3 0 99992
>>> 2 41909  97.5387 132.1232 0012260 183.8922 176.0983 16.46726667 8207
>>>
>>> 73,
>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>
>>>
>>> On 16-02-17 21:19, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>> All,
>>>>
>>>> BY70-1 may be expected to re-enter on February 18 around 01:00 UTC
>>>> +/- 3 hours.
>>>>
>>>> The apogee of the satellite has now decreased to 242 km and the 
>>>> perigee
>>>> has decreased to 176 km.
>>>>
>>>> 73,
>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 12-02-17 13:27, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>> All,
>>>>>
>>>>> As a result of lower solar activity in the past week, the decay 
>>>>> rate of
>>>>> BY70-1 has decreased. The satellite may now be expected to re-enter
>>>>> around February 16 to 19.
>>>>>
>>>>> The apogee of the satellite has now decreased to 313 km and the 
>>>>> perigee
>>>>> has decreased to 191 km.
>>>>>
>>>>> 73,
>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>
>>>
>>
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>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Sent via AMSAT-BB at amsat.org. AMSAT-NA makes this open forum available
> to all interested persons worldwide without requiring membership. 
> Opinions expressed
> are solely those of the author, and do not reflect the official views 
> of AMSAT-NA.
> Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite 
> program!
> Subscription settings: http://www.amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb