[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

[Nico Janssen]

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:
> Hi,
>
> My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
> the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.
>
> As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
> satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
> coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
> Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
> around the satellite.
>
> Happy New Year to all!
>
> 73,
> Nico PA0DLO
>
>
> On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> Hi,
>>
>> My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
>> January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
>> activity really increase before the end of December,
>> as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
>> days earlier.
>>
>> 73,
>> Nico PA0DLO
>>
>>
>> On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>> Hi,
>>>
>>> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
>>> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
>>> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
>>> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
>>> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
>>> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
>>>
>>> 73,
>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>
>>>
>>> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>> Hi,
>>>>
>>>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
>>>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
>>>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
>>>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
>>>> there have not been any magnetic storms.
>>>>
>>>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
>>>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
>>>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
>>>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
>>>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any
>>>> sensible predictions.
>>>>
>>>> 73,
>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>> Hi,
>>>>>
>>>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
>>>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
>>>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
>>>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
>>>>> develops in the coming weeks.
>>>>>
>>>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
>>>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
>>>>>
>>>>> 73,
>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>
>>>>>
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