[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

[Nico Janssen]

Hi,

My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

73,
Nico PA0DLO


On 2012-01-01 15:49, Nico Janssen wrote:
> Hi,
>
> My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
> January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.
>
> Recent predictions from other sources:
> - USSTRATCOM TIP message:
> January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
> - Aerospace:
> January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
> (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
>
> 73,
> Nico PA0DLO
>
>
> On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> Hi,
>>
>> My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
>> the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.
>>
>> As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
>> satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
>> coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
>> Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
>> around the satellite.
>>
>> Happy New Year to all!
>>
>> 73,
>> Nico PA0DLO
>>
>>
>> On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>> Hi,
>>>
>>> My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
>>> January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
>>> activity really increase before the end of December,
>>> as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
>>> days earlier.
>>>
>>> 73,
>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>
>>>
>>> On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>> Hi,
>>>>
>>>> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
>>>> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
>>>> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
>>>> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
>>>> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
>>>> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
>>>>
>>>> 73,
>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>> Hi,
>>>>>
>>>>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
>>>>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
>>>>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
>>>>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
>>>>> there have not been any magnetic storms.
>>>>>
>>>>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
>>>>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
>>>>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
>>>>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
>>>>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any
>>>>> sensible predictions.
>>>>>
>>>>> 73,
>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>>> Hi,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
>>>>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
>>>>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
>>>>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
>>>>>> develops in the coming weeks.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
>>>>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 73,
>>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
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