[amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay

Tue Jan 3 12:39:56 PST 2012

Hi,

My updated (and probably last) prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 09:00 UTC ± 5 hours.

Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 05:34 UTC ± 11 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:35 UTC ± 4 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).

For those who would like to track ARISSat 1 till the very end, but
who do not have access to the latest orbital data, I have generated
the following two-line element sets.

After 2012-01-04, 01:10 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.04907143  .10590547  82197-1  80387-3 0 94757
2 37772  51.6192 213.1232 0005039 247.4614 112.4853 16.39580411 24076

After 2012-01-04, 02:35 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.10999442  .12344606  11664+0  78957-3 0 94751
2 37772  51.6188 212.7785 0004712 247.7188 112.2313 16.40971462 24087

After 2012-01-04, 04:05 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.17086135  .14945730  18056+0  77289-3 0 94750
2 37772  51.6183 212.4335 0004334 247.9765 111.9774 16.42620927 24090

After 2012-01-04, 05:30 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.23166040  .19278117  32316+0  63018-3 0 94754
2 37772  51.6178 212.0879 0003875 248.2346 111.7241 16.44675832 24107

After 2012-01-04, 07:00 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK  12004.29237155  .28278236  77737+0  51650-3 0 94753
2 37772  51.6170 211.7417 0003268 248.4933 111.4719 16.47481875 24116

73,
Nico PA0DLO

On 2012-01-02 16:38, Nico Janssen wrote:
> Hi,
>
> My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
> January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.
>
> Recent predictions from other sources:
> - USSTRATCOM TIP message:
> January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
> - Aerospace:
> January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
> (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
>
> 73,
> Nico PA0DLO
>
>
> On 2012-01-01 15:49, Nico Janssen wrote:
>> Hi,
>>
>> My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
>> January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.
>>
>> Recent predictions from other sources:
>> - USSTRATCOM TIP message:
>> January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
>> - Aerospace:
>> January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
>> (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
>>
>> 73,
>> Nico PA0DLO
>>
>>
>> On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>> Hi,
>>>
>>> My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
>>> the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.
>>>
>>> As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
>>> satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
>>> coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
>>> Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
>>> around the satellite.
>>>
>>> Happy New Year to all!
>>>
>>> 73,
>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>
>>>
>>> On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>> Hi,
>>>>
>>>> My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
>>>> January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
>>>> activity really increase before the end of December,
>>>> as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
>>>> days earlier.
>>>>
>>>> 73,
>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>> Hi,
>>>>>
>>>>> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
>>>>> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
>>>>> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
>>>>> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
>>>>> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
>>>>> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
>>>>>
>>>>> 73,
>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>>> Hi,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
>>>>>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
>>>>>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
>>>>>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
>>>>>> there have not been any magnetic storms.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
>>>>>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
>>>>>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
>>>>>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
>>>>>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any
>>>>>> sensible predictions.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 73,
>>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
>>>>>>> Hi,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
>>>>>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
>>>>>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
>>>>>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
>>>>>>> develops in the coming weeks.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
>>>>>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> 73,
>>>>>>> Nico PA0DLO
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>> _______________________________________________
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> _______________________________________________
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